Friday, November 25, 2005

pLz dRaW a LiNe...

Hi frnds,

would like to knw from you all...

Its a cliche to say that 'plz dont get overconfident!'

So, where can one draw a line between confidence and overconfidence?


At 12:06 AM , Blogger rohit said...

Confidence and overconfidence compares subjective features of a belief with its accuracy.

Overconfidence refers to the exaggerated sense that one can predict or produce a desired future outcome.

Overconfidence is measured in terms of confidence that individuals express in their judgements relative to the accuracy of those judgements.

Namely overconfidence exists when the exante expected accuracy of judgements exceeds their ex post accuracy.

Note the following difference:-

1.Overconfidence is greater when people are more confident(i.e., at a confidence of 60%, people are typically correct about 50% of the time---10% overconfident---whereas at a confidence of 90%, they are accurate only about 65% of the time---25% overconfident).

2.Overconfidence is smaller when people are more(i.e., at an accuracy of 50%, people are only slightly overconfident---saying they are 60% confident---whereas at an accuracy of 90%, people may not be overconfident at all---saying they are 90% confident).

Thoda zyaada ho gaya. LoL.

At 10:33 PM , Blogger Akky said...

@rohit > arey bhai kya baat rakheli hai... !!! wah wah !!!

jara samjhaneka kasht bhi karoge kya??

At 12:01 PM , Blogger rohit said...

Try "Acting Logically", sab samajh me aa jaayega.LoL.


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